Kaczor expects Dexcom and Abbott to benefit from the trend with their next-generation CGM offerings after meetings with both companies’ management.
Both companies launched next-gen CGMs in recent years (Dexcom G7 and Abbott FreeStyle Libre 3). Dexcom also began rolling out its Stelo over-the-counter non-insulin CGM and Abbott has its Lingo non-insulin biowearable coming to the U.S. soon.
According to Kaczor, the number of non-insulin patient adds in 2023 proved surprising and came in above expectations. William Blair estimates nearly 300,000 new non-insulin CGM users, compared to a projection of 200,000. She sees this as an additive to the still-underpenetrated opportunity in the insulin-using diabetic patient population.
The model created by William Blair analysts last July expected a user acceleration in non-intensively managed basal insulin users. However, they saw it approaching the “steep part of the adoption curve.” However, they’ve now amended the model.
“We believe our thesis is playing out better than we had modeled, with continued upside to come,” Kaczor wrote.
Given new trends and the over-the-counter labeling for Stelo, rather than prescription-based, the team revisited its view on CGM expansion for all major user categories. While it remains to early to assume an meaningful uplift in non-insulin trends, the model now reflects what a more bullish scenario could signify. That bullish outlook includes a 24% volume growth, compared to an 18% projection.
“This would represent a domestic CGM market of $7.8 billion-plus in 2025 and $10.3 billion in 2027, making it one of the fastest-growth stories we are aware of in a medical technology market greater than $5 billion in size,” Kaczor said.
