Marie Thibault, Sam Eiber and Alexandra Pang of BTIG hosted Dexcom Senior VP, IR and Finance, Sean Christiensen, IR Manager Joseph Deltorchio and Director, IR, Matthew Carey for virtual meetings last week. They said the meetings focused mainly on the company’s G7 15 Day continuous glucose monitor (CGM) rollout, potential Medicare coverage expansion into the type 2 diabetes non-insulin population and other growth efforts.
Other points of emphasis include the next-generation G8 and the leveraging of AI across both product development and internal processes. That includes new features like AI-powered meal logging and smart basal insulin dosing.
Following the meetings, the analysts maintained a “Buy” rating for Dexcom, highlighting optimism ahead of the company’s May Investor Day event.
“With commercial execution-related stumbles largely in the rearview and new leadership in place, we expect to learn more about DXCM’s strategic roadmap and what the next phase of growth looks like,” the analysts wrote.
More about the imminent growth drivers for Dexcom
The analysts said that, with G7 15 Day CGM fully available in the U.S. following its late 2025 launch, Dexcom reports positive early feedback. Dexcom’s sensor provides an extended-wear option for G7 users with a new algorithm, better accuracy and smoother data output. The 15-day sensor also launched with connectivity to Insulet and Beta Bionics pumps, with Tandem Diabetes Care set to follow.
Dexcom also noted the upcoming launch of new adhesive patch technology, which should enhance survivability for the sensor. That received FDA clearance in early February and the company plans to move it into production in the coming months.
“The new sensor should help drive increased demand and better gross margins over time,” the analysts wrote.
Additionally, Dexcom expects CMS to propose a coverage expansion into the type 2 diabetes non-insulin population during the first half of this year. It anticipates a comment period before formal implementation of around six months, so its 2026 outlook does not assume any expansion.
Management expects the coverage expansion pathway to come through a local coverage determination (LCD) proposal. Dexcom also expects broad-based coverage, fitting within existing reimbursement pricing parameters.
“With the coverage expansion, [Dexcom] sees an opportunity to convert those with type 2 diabetes who are currently using Stelo to their G-series offering,” the analysts said.”
They expect a readout of data from a randomized controlled trial evaluating non-insulin type 2 diabetes patients in the first half of 2026. That could come at the Investor Day event or at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) Scientific Sessions in June.
Other potential areas of interest at Dexcom
Upcoming catalysts, the analysts say, include further expansion for the Stelo over-the-counter (OTC) sensor and payor coverage wins across different populations and markets. Additionally, they note the non-insulin type 2 data readout, competitive announcements and launches and international expansion with Dexcom ONE+.
Their base case assumptions include continued G7 adoption, a manageable pricing environment and an on-track product pipeline. Potential upside comes in the form of G7 adoption acceleration, continued stability on pricing and an accelerated pipeline.
Outside the U.S., the company expects growth from new customer starts and increased retention. It plans to introduce Stelo and a new CGM system for outside the U.S. around the globe while also focusing on reimbursement.
On the topic of competitive bidding, the company expects that to go into effect in 2028. Management said it wants to ensure that it supports customers throughout that process.
As for the company’s ongoing FDA warning letter mitigation, Dexcom officials say they have made steady progress. They told the analysts that the company enhanced its supply chain. The company continues to provide the FDA with regular updates on relevant performance metrics to ensure they remain in good standing.
The analysts continue to expect Dexcom to produce across various patient populations as it targets new areas and new technologies.
“We believe that over time CGM will be the primary method of monitoring glucose in most T1D, insulin-dependent T2D and a meaningful portion of basal-only patients,” they wrote. “Underlying trends like remote monitoring, greater accuracy, broader reach into new patient populations, lower prices, and a more patient-friendly business model should propel high growth over the long term.
“As we assess high-growth MedTech names in the current macroeconomic environment, we underscore DXCM’s recurring revenue business model, profitability, and strong balance sheet.
